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UberDx Chapter 6

Harding PPThe latest salvo in the mammography overdiagnosis debate, from Harding et al at

JAMA Intern Med. Published online July 06, 2015. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.3043

A classic overdiagnosis curve, showing a dramatic increase in breast cancer diagnosis, as related to proportion of women getting mammograms, without a commensurate change in 10 year mortality.

If we can’t stop the mammography juggernaut, we should at least inform our patients of the risks of overdiagnosis.


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How many women have HPV?

Through the biostats information gleaned from the “ARTISTIC” trial and the U.K.’s NHS data, in addition to the wonderfully powerful tool of Bayesian Calculation, here’s a cool chart showing the estimated prevalence of HPV by age for women.  It uses an elegant model to extract likelihoods based on known probabilities.

You can easily see why patients between the ages of 21-24 are treated differently than at older ages (by the ASCCP guidelines) for pap smears of ASC-US and LSIL.  (Interpretation: the bump is biggest in the teenage years to the mid 20s.  Any guesses why?)

Projected HPV-16 rate in Women

(Don’t bother reading this article unless you’re a part of the Bayesian conspiracy.)

[edit: here is Raj’s picture since imgur is blocked on CHA work computers]

 

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