CHA Family Medicine Residency

Tufts family medicine residents have "the best of both worlds"

How many women have HPV?

2 Comments

Through the biostats information gleaned from the “ARTISTIC” trial and the U.K.’s NHS data, in addition to the wonderfully powerful tool of Bayesian Calculation, here’s a cool chart showing the estimated prevalence of HPV by age for women.  It uses an elegant model to extract likelihoods based on known probabilities.

You can easily see why patients between the ages of 21-24 are treated differently than at older ages (by the ASCCP guidelines) for pap smears of ASC-US and LSIL.  (Interpretation: the bump is biggest in the teenage years to the mid 20s.  Any guesses why?)

Projected HPV-16 rate in Women

(Don’t bother reading this article unless you’re a part of the Bayesian conspiracy.)

[edit: here is Raj’s picture since imgur is blocked on CHA work computers]

 

pARWWjV

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2 thoughts on “How many women have HPV?

  1. Your x-axis needs to be corrected. Its not hpv prevalence, but prevalence of hpv diagnosis, which is just incidence of hpv. The prevalence of hpv would never have a negative slope. Also consider overlapping the incidence of cervical cancer on same graph.

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  2. Decided to take your Bayesian Model and separate Transient and Persisting HPV infections using Markov Chains and Monte Carlo simulation.

    graph:
    http://imgur.com/pARWWjV

    -Raj

    Like

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